Trearddur Bay sailing weather

Live wind at Ravenspoint

Roof-level observations from the Davis Vantage Pro weather station.

N SSW 202°
Wind now 9 knots
Gust · last hour 22.6 knots 22:10 · S
Today's max gust 44.3 knots 02:56 · SSE
1-hour average 12.1 knots From S

3-hour wind trend: Falling (-1.5 kt/h)

24-hour comparison

Wind now / 24 hours ago9 / 16.5 knots
Gust now / 24 hours ago22.6 / 23.5 knots
Today's average9 knots from 202°

Full sailing conditions and forecast →

Local Forecast Model Details

This page contains the detailed Ravenspoint experimental forecast, uncertainty ranges, provider comparisons and official Met Office wind guidance. For a quicker sailing decision, use the sailing weather summary.

Met Office weather warnings

Trearddur Bay

No active weather warnings for Trearddur Bay.

Weather warnings supplied by the Met Office.

Ravenspoint experimental nowcast

Local six-hour wind forecast

Generated from the Davis station's recent wind, gust, direction, pressure, temperature and humidity patterns, with Met Office guidance used as a secondary input.

Confidence
Established

Forecast current: updated 14 minutes ago. Station input fallback is active; Met Office guidance is being prioritised.

Why this confidence: Station data quality is reduced: Weather observations are more than 15 minutes old.

Current weather pattern: Showery / unstable. Forecast weighting is checked against outcomes from similar conditions when enough examples exist.

Model still learning: This is an experimental local forecast. Do not use it as the sole basis for sailing decisions; check current conditions and the official forecast.

Sailing outlook: Likely sailing window from 00:05 to 05:05. Based on the forecast range, gust risk and the 18-knot threshold.
00:05 Likely suitable 11.3 kt · gust 20.9 kt · SSW Upper wind range remains below 18 kt and gusts remain below 25 kt.
01:05 Likely suitable 11.3 kt · gust 20.9 kt · SSW Upper wind range remains below 18 kt and gusts remain below 25 kt.
02:05 Likely suitable 11.3 kt · gust 20.9 kt · SSW Upper wind range remains below 18 kt and gusts remain below 25 kt.
03:05 Likely suitable 11.3 kt · gust 20.9 kt · SSW Upper wind range remains below 18 kt and gusts remain below 25 kt.
04:05 Likely suitable 11.3 kt · gust 20.9 kt · SSW Upper wind range remains below 18 kt and gusts remain below 25 kt.
05:05 Likely suitable 11.3 kt · gust 20.9 kt · SSW Upper wind range remains below 18 kt and gusts remain below 25 kt.
Likely suitable +1 hour 00:05
SSW
11.3 kt wind20.9 kt gust
Most likely: 9.5–11.8 kt central 50% Possible: 8.1–13.2 kt safety range, 80% Strong agreement · 120 direction-matched results Gust risk: ≥18 kt 92% · ≥20 kt 67% · ≥25 kt 14% · ≥30 kt 1% Change: Steady (+0.0 kt) · direction-shift risk 0% Since previous run: Little change from the previous run Blend: experimental model 85%, recent wind 15%
Likely suitable +2 hours 01:05
SSW
11.3 kt wind20.9 kt gust
Most likely: 9.8–12.5 kt central 50% Possible: 8.6–14.0 kt safety range, 80% Strong agreement · 120 direction-matched results Gust risk: ≥18 kt 87% · ≥20 kt 61% · ≥25 kt 14% · ≥30 kt 2% Change: Steady (+0.0 kt) · direction-shift risk 0% Since previous run: Little change from the previous run Blend: experimental model 85%, recent wind 15%
Likely suitable +3 hours 02:05
SSW
11.3 kt wind20.9 kt gust
Most likely: 9.8–12.5 kt central 50% Possible: 8.9–13.5 kt safety range, 80% Strong agreement · 120 direction-matched results Gust risk: ≥18 kt 78% · ≥20 kt 62% · ≥25 kt 23% · ≥30 kt 3% Change: Steady (+0.0 kt) · direction-shift risk 0% Since previous run: Little change from the previous run Blend: experimental model 85%, recent wind 15%
Likely suitable +4 hours 03:05
SSW
11.3 kt wind20.9 kt gust
Most likely: 9.9–12.2 kt central 50% Possible: 8.7–13.3 kt safety range, 80% Strong agreement · 119 direction-matched results Gust risk: ≥18 kt 74% · ≥20 kt 60% · ≥25 kt 22% · ≥30 kt 4% Change: Steady (+0.0 kt) · direction-shift risk 0% Since previous run: Little change from the previous run Blend: experimental model 85%, recent wind 15%
Likely suitable +5 hours 04:05
SSW
11.3 kt wind20.9 kt gust
Most likely: 9.6–12.5 kt central 50% Possible: 8.6–13.7 kt safety range, 80% Strong agreement · 122 direction-matched results Gust risk: ≥18 kt 73% · ≥20 kt 66% · ≥25 kt 32% · ≥30 kt 6% Change: Steady (+0.0 kt) · direction-shift risk 0% Since previous run: Little change from the previous run Blend: experimental model 85%, recent wind 15%
Likely suitable +6 hours 05:05
SSW
11.3 kt wind20.9 kt gust
Most likely: 9.8–12.5 kt central 50% Possible: 8.6–13.7 kt safety range, 80% Strong agreement · 122 direction-matched results Gust risk: ≥18 kt 70% · ≥20 kt 64% · ≥25 kt 25% · ≥30 kt 7% Change: Steady (+0.0 kt) · direction-shift risk 0% Since previous run: Little change from the previous run Blend: experimental model 85%, recent wind 15%

Ravenspoint compared with Met Office

Wind speed in knots. The recent error row uses scored live outcomes for each forecast horizon.

+1h Ravenspoint 11.3 Met Office – Recent error: 2.0 kt local / 2.2 kt Met Office
+2h Ravenspoint 11.3 Met Office – Recent error: 2.4 kt local / 2.3 kt Met Office
+3h Ravenspoint 11.3 Met Office – Recent error: 2.5 kt local / 2.4 kt Met Office
+4h Ravenspoint 11.3 Met Office – Recent error: 2.4 kt local / 2.4 kt Met Office
+5h Ravenspoint 11.3 Met Office – Recent error: 2.3 kt local / 2.4 kt Met Office
+6h Ravenspoint 11.3 Met Office – Recent error: 2.4 kt local / 2.3 kt Met Office

Training archive: 3,058 days · Forecast outcomes scored: 2200 · Updated 23:02

Met Office probabilistic guidance

Wind forecast spread

The central forecast and likely 10th–90th percentile range for Trearddur Bay. A wider spread means a wider range of plausible wind speeds.

Forecast spread
Moderate

Guidance current: updated 14 minutes ago. The last valid forecast remains visible if the Met Office feed is temporarily unavailable.

Moderate spread: the likely wind range averages 5.6 kt wide over the first four hours. This describes forecast uncertainty, not feed reliability or overall Met Office accuracy.

23:00
4.1 kt wind
Likely 1.9–6.1 kt
9.6 kt gust
Likely 7.9–11.4 kt
Wind ≥18 kt 0%Gust ≥25 kt 0%
00:00
4.1 kt wind
Likely 1.9–6.1 kt
10.6 kt gust
Likely 8.6–13.2 kt
Wind ≥18 kt 0%Gust ≥25 kt 0%
01:00
5.1 kt wind
Likely 1.9–8.0 kt
11.1 kt gust
Likely 9.8–13.5 kt
Wind ≥18 kt 0%Gust ≥25 kt 0%
02:00
5.1 kt wind
Likely 1.9–9.7 kt
12.5 kt gust
Likely 10.7–14.0 kt
Wind ≥18 kt 0%Gust ≥25 kt 0%
03:00
6.1 kt wind
Likely 2.9–9.7 kt
13.5 kt gust
Likely 11.9–15.4 kt
Wind ≥18 kt 0%Gust ≥25 kt 0%
04:00
7.0 kt wind
Likely 4.1–11.1 kt
15.2 kt gust
Likely 13.6–17.4 kt
Wind ≥18 kt 0%Gust ≥25 kt 0%

Forecasts checked against Ravenspoint observations: 24372. Accuracy is tracked separately by forecast horizon.

Probabilistic guidance is not a guarantee. Check live conditions before sailing.

Met Office Global Spot forecast

Trearddur Bay wind forecast

Hourly wind and gust forecast for the next 48 hours. Speeds are shown in knots.

Model run
3 Oct, 22:00 UTC
DateTimeDirectionWindGustWeatherRain
Sat 3 Oct 23:00 SSW 4 kt 7 kt Clear 0%
Sun 4 Oct 00:00 SSW 4 kt 7 kt Clear 0%
Sun 4 Oct 01:00 SSW 5 kt 7 kt Clear 0%
Sun 4 Oct 02:00 SSW 5 kt 10 kt Clear 0%
Sun 4 Oct 03:00 SSW 8 kt 13 kt Fog 14%
Sun 4 Oct 04:00 SSW 9 kt 14 kt Partly cloudy 1%
Sun 4 Oct 05:00 SW 11 kt 16 kt Cloudy 5%
Sun 4 Oct 06:00 SW 12 kt 17 kt Cloudy 4%
Sun 4 Oct 07:00 SW 12 kt 17 kt Cloudy 5%
Sun 4 Oct 08:00 SW 12 kt 18 kt Cloudy 5%
Sun 4 Oct 09:00 SSW 13 kt 18 kt Cloudy 5%
Sun 4 Oct 10:00 SSW 14 kt 19 kt Cloudy 5%
Sun 4 Oct 11:00 SSW 14 kt 19 kt Overcast 9%
Sun 4 Oct 12:00 SW 14 kt 20 kt Overcast 10%
Sun 4 Oct 13:00 SW 14 kt 20 kt Overcast 10%
Sun 4 Oct 14:00 SW 14 kt 21 kt Overcast 10%
Sun 4 Oct 15:00 SSW 15 kt 22 kt Cloudy 5%
Sun 4 Oct 16:00 SSW 15 kt 23 kt Cloudy 5%
Sun 4 Oct 17:00 SSW 15 kt 23 kt Cloudy 5%
Sun 4 Oct 18:00 SSW 15 kt 23 kt Cloudy 5%
Sun 4 Oct 19:00 SSW 15 kt 23 kt Cloudy 5%
Sun 4 Oct 20:00 SW 15 kt 23 kt Cloudy 5%
Sun 4 Oct 21:00 SW 16 kt 24 kt Cloudy 5%
Sun 4 Oct 22:00 SSW 16 kt 24 kt Cloudy 4%
Sun 4 Oct 23:00 SW 16 kt 24 kt Cloudy 5%
Mon 5 Oct 00:00 SW 16 kt 24 kt Cloudy 6%
Mon 5 Oct 01:00 SW 17 kt 25 kt Cloudy 6%
Mon 5 Oct 02:00 SW 17 kt 25 kt Cloudy 15%
Mon 5 Oct 03:00 SW 17 kt 25 kt Overcast 10%
Mon 5 Oct 04:00 SW 17 kt 25 kt Overcast 17%
Mon 5 Oct 05:00 SW 17 kt 25 kt Cloudy 12%
Mon 5 Oct 06:00 SW 17 kt 26 kt Cloudy 7%
Mon 5 Oct 07:00 SW 17 kt 25 kt Overcast 9%
Mon 5 Oct 08:00 SW 17 kt 25 kt Cloudy 6%
Mon 5 Oct 09:00 SW 17 kt 25 kt Cloudy 6%
Mon 5 Oct 10:00 SW 17 kt 25 kt Cloudy 6%
Mon 5 Oct 11:00 SW 17 kt 25 kt Overcast 9%
Mon 5 Oct 12:00 SW 17 kt 25 kt Cloudy 6%
Mon 5 Oct 13:00 SW 17 kt 25 kt Cloudy 14%
Mon 5 Oct 14:00 SW 17 kt 25 kt Cloudy 14%
Mon 5 Oct 15:00 SW 17 kt 25 kt Cloudy 5%
Mon 5 Oct 16:00 SW 16 kt 24 kt Cloudy 5%
Mon 5 Oct 17:00 SW 15 kt 22 kt Cloudy 9%
Mon 5 Oct 18:00 SW 13 kt 20 kt Cloudy 7%
Mon 5 Oct 19:00 SW 12 kt 18 kt Overcast 11%
Mon 5 Oct 20:00 SW 11 kt 17 kt Overcast 11%
Mon 5 Oct 21:00 SW 11 kt 16 kt Overcast 14%
Mon 5 Oct 22:00 SW 11 kt 16 kt Overcast 14%
Gusts 18–24 ktGusts 25+ kt

Forecast data © Crown copyright Met Office. Full official Trearddur Bay forecast →