Local Forecast Model Details
This page contains the detailed Ravenspoint experimental forecast, uncertainty ranges, provider comparisons and official Met Office wind guidance. For a quicker sailing decision, use the sailing weather summary.
Met Office weather warnings
Trearddur Bay
Yellow warning
Thunderstorm
Heavy showers and thunderstorms likely to lead to some travel disruption and flash flooding.
Heavy showers will develop this evening, becoming more frequent and widespread overnight. These are likely to bring 15 to 20 mm in an hour in some areas with as much as 30 to 50 mm falling in a period of six hours in some places. These accumulations may lead to a few places seeing some flooding. Alongside the rain, some showers are likely to be thundery, bringing the additional hazards of lightning and hail. The showers will ease from the northwest Thursday morning.
Full warning details at the Met Office
Weather warnings supplied by the Met Office.
Forecast current: updated 13 minutes ago.
Why this confidence: Supported by a substantial archive and consistent recent live verification.
Current weather pattern: Showery / unstable. Forecast weighting is checked against outcomes from similar conditions when enough examples exist.
Model still learning: This is an experimental local forecast. Do not use it as the sole basis for sailing decisions; check current conditions and the official forecast.
Sailing outlook: Likely sailing window from 13:10 to 13:10. Based on the forecast range, gust risk and the 18-knot threshold.
13:10
Likely suitable
11.6 kt · gust 19.1 kt · SSW
Upper wind range remains below 18 kt and gusts remain below 25 kt.
14:10
Marginal
14.7 kt · gust 20.8 kt · SW
Marginal because upper wind range reaches 19.6 kt.
15:10
Marginal
15.8 kt · gust 22.2 kt · SW
Marginal because upper wind range reaches 21.6 kt.
16:10
Marginal
16.8 kt · gust 23.9 kt · SW
Marginal because upper wind range reaches 24.7 kt.
Likely suitable
+1 hour
13:10
↑ SSW
11.6 kt wind19.1 kt gust
Most likely: 9.8–13.9 kt central 50%
Possible: 8.5–15.6 kt safety range, 80%
Strong agreement · 71 direction-matched results
Gust risk: ≥18 kt 85% · ≥20 kt 61% · ≥25 kt 3% · ≥30 kt 0%
Change: Steady (+0.0 kt) · direction-shift risk 0%
Since previous run: Stronger by 0.6 kt
Blend: recent wind 85%, experimental model 15%
Marginal
+2 hours
14:10
↑ SW
14.7 kt wind20.8 kt gust
Most likely: 12.4–17.0 kt central 50%
Possible: 11.1–19.6 kt safety range, 80%
Moderate agreement · 71 direction-matched results
Gust risk: ≥18 kt 84% · ≥20 kt 71% · ≥25 kt 13% · ≥30 kt 1%
Change: Increasing (+3.0 kt) · direction-shift risk 0%
Since previous run: Little change from the previous run
Blend: Met Office 85%, experimental model 15%
Marginal
+3 hours
15:10
↑ SW
15.8 kt wind22.2 kt gust
Most likely: 12.8–18.2 kt central 50%
Possible: 11.4–21.6 kt safety range, 80%
Moderate agreement · 71 direction-matched results
Gust risk: ≥18 kt 85% · ≥20 kt 67% · ≥25 kt 28% · ≥30 kt 2%
Change: Increasing (+4.2 kt) · direction-shift risk 0%
Since previous run: Little change from the previous run
Blend: Met Office 100%
Marginal
+4 hours
16:10
↑ SW
16.8 kt wind23.9 kt gust
Most likely: 14.4–19.6 kt central 50%
Possible: 9.7–24.7 kt safety range, 80%
Significant disagreement · 67 direction-matched results
Gust risk: ≥18 kt 84% · ≥20 kt 71% · ≥25 kt 23% · ≥30 kt 4%
Change: Rapidly increasing (+5.2 kt) · direction-shift risk 0%
Since previous run: Little change from the previous run
Blend: Met Office 100%
Ravenspoint compared with Met Office
Wind speed in knots. The recent error row uses scored live outcomes for each forecast horizon.
+1h
Ravenspoint 11.6
Met Office 13.5
Recent error: 2.9 kt local / 2.2 kt Met Office
+2h
Ravenspoint 14.7
Met Office 15.2
Recent error: 3.2 kt local / 2.2 kt Met Office
+3h
Ravenspoint 15.8
Met Office 15.8
Recent error: 3.2 kt local / 2.3 kt Met Office
+4h
Ravenspoint 16.8
Met Office 16.8
Recent error: 3.3 kt local / 2.3 kt Met Office
Training archive: 3,057 days · Forecast outcomes scored: 532 · Updated 12:17
Guidance current: updated 13 minutes ago. The last valid forecast remains visible if the Met Office feed is temporarily unavailable.
13:00
11.7 kt wind
Likely 8.0–15.9 kt
20.4 kt gust
Likely 18.0–22.8 kt
Wind ≥18 kt 0%Gust ≥25 kt 1%
14:00
13.0 kt wind
Likely 9.0–16.9 kt
22.2 kt gust
Likely 20.4–23.7 kt
Wind ≥18 kt 4%Gust ≥25 kt 2%
15:00
13.0 kt wind
Likely 9.0–17.5 kt
23.6 kt gust
Likely 21.5–25.0 kt
Wind ≥18 kt 9%Gust ≥25 kt 11%
16:00
13.0 kt wind
Likely 9.0–18.1 kt
24.4 kt gust
Likely 21.6–27.1 kt
Wind ≥18 kt 9%Gust ≥25 kt 34%
17:00
13.0 kt wind
Likely 7.7–17.0 kt
23.8 kt gust
Likely 21.5–26.8 kt
Wind ≥18 kt 4%Gust ≥25 kt 23%
18:00
11.7 kt wind
Likely 7.8–15.9 kt
22.6 kt gust
Likely 19.6–25.8 kt
Wind ≥18 kt 4%Gust ≥25 kt 16%
Forecasts checked against Ravenspoint observations: 588. Accuracy is tracked separately by forecast horizon.
Probabilistic guidance is not a guarantee. Check live conditions before sailing.
