Weather Station Status
This website uses WeeWX
for weather conditions reporting.
Latest weather observation: 09/11/2026 15:57.
| Component | Status | Age h:m:s |
Latest update time as of 09/11/2026 15:57 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Live WeeWX observations | Current | 0:00:18 | 09/11/2026 15:57 |
| Met Office forecast | Current | 0:52:36 | 09/11/2026 15:05 |
| Trearddur Bay tide data | Current | 15:57:05 | 09/11/2026 00:00 |
| Vestaboard weather update | Current | 0:27:35 | 09/11/2026 15:30 |
| Automated ntfy monitoring | Current | 0:02:36 | 09/11/2026 15:55 |
| Web configuration backup | Current | 13:42:31 | 09/11/2026 02:15 |
| WeeWX configuration backup | Current | 13:27:36 | 09/11/2026 02:30 |
| Local wind forecast model | Current | 0:09:33 | 09/11/2026 15:48 |
| External forecast inputs | Current | 0:11:45 | 09/11/2026 15:45 |
Experimental Ravenspoint model
Four-hour wind forecast accuracy
These are live results from forecasts published on the landing page, checked against subsequent Ravenspoint observations. The system now favours whichever input has recently performed best. Lower error figures are better.
| Forecast | Assessed | 7-day wind error | 30-day wind error | Trend | Gust error | Direction error | Met Office wind error | Sailing decisions | Range coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1 hour | 367 | 1.1 kt | 1.1 kt | Collecting | 1.8 kt | 25° | 1.5 kt | 100% exact; safety score 100% (0 unsafe suitable calls) | 50%: 52% of 367 80%: 82% of 367 |
| +2 hours | 367 | 1.2 kt | 1.2 kt | Collecting | 2.7 kt | 33° | 1.5 kt | 100% exact; safety score 100% (0 unsafe suitable calls) | 50%: 52% of 367 80%: 84% of 367 |
| +3 hours | 367 | 1.3 kt | 1.3 kt | Collecting | 2.5 kt | 36° | 1.5 kt | 100% exact; safety score 100% (0 unsafe suitable calls) | 50%: 56% of 367 80%: 86% of 367 |
| +4 hours | 367 | 1.3 kt | 1.3 kt | Collecting | 2.6 kt | 35° | 1.5 kt | 100% exact; safety score 100% (0 unsafe suitable calls) | 50%: 50% of 367 80%: 83% of 367 |
2200 forecast outcomes assessed in total. Unsafe “suitable” calls carry five times the penalty of an ordinary classification error. Forecast ranges target 80% coverage.
Model safeguard: candidate 20261109T031735Z-043e5a01 was held back. candidate must improve composite error by at least 2%: 4.51 versus required 4.39
Forecast data quality
Healthy Latest observation age: 7 minutes · Excluded implausible rows: 36 · Units: metric-normalised-v2.
Weather regime: Showery / unstable.
Safety guard active Local model remains within the live safety limit. Comparisons: 2200; local unsafe suitable calls: 0; persistence: 0.
Upstream model-feature archive: 91.7 days; RAF Valley 4434 records; Met Office land 2053 records. Enabled for training
Met Office revision archive: 7707 snapshots, 1798 changed forecast versions and 382788 timestamped forecast rows retained.
Current upstream changes: RAF Valley falling -2.0 kt; Met Office land stations steady +0.4 kt. Upstream changes remain shadow inputs until the 60-day readiness gate is met.
Current forecast decision audit
| Horizon | Selected source | Weights | Excluded | Reason | Change outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1h | local | local 85%, persistence 15% | historicalDifferential, metOffice | local had the lowest recency-weighted error; sources more than 8% worse were excluded. | Steady; direction shift 0% |
| +2h | local | local 85%, persistence 15% | historicalDifferential, metOffice | local had the lowest recency-weighted error; sources more than 8% worse were excluded. | Steady; direction shift 0% |
| +3h | local | local 85%, persistence 15% | metOffice | local had the lowest recency-weighted error; sources more than 8% worse were excluded. | Steady; direction shift 0% |
| +4h | local | local 85%, persistence 15% | metOffice | local had the lowest recency-weighted error; sources more than 8% worse were excluded. | Steady; direction shift 0% |
| +5h | local | local 85%, persistence 15% | metOffice | local had the lowest recency-weighted error; sources more than 8% worse were excluded. | Steady; direction shift 0% |
| +6h | local | local 85%, persistence 15% | metOffice | local had the lowest recency-weighted error; sources more than 8% worse were excluded. | Steady; direction shift 0% |
Direct gust and change models
Accuracy by observed wind direction (30 days)
| Direction | Assessed | Wind error | Gust error | Direction error | 80% error allowance | Range coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N | 81 | 2.2 kt | 4.1 kt | 117° | ±3.0 kt | 50%: 36% of 81 80%: 72% of 81 |
| NE | 719 | 1.0 kt | 2.5 kt | 19° | ±1.5 kt | 50%: 63% of 719 80%: 92% of 719 |
| E | 770 | 1.1 kt | 2.2 kt | 27° | ±1.8 kt | 50%: 59% of 770 80%: 87% of 770 |
| SE | 253 | 1.9 kt | 3.0 kt | 45° | ±3.0 kt | 50%: 28% of 253 80%: 69% of 253 |
| S | 282 | 1.2 kt | 2.6 kt | 38° | ±1.9 kt | 50%: 48% of 282 80%: 83% of 282 |
| SW | 24 | 1.4 kt | 3.5 kt | 71° | ±2.4 kt | 50%: 42% of 24 80%: 92% of 24 |
| W | 30 | 3.7 kt | 5.8 kt | 91° | ±5.3 kt | 50%: 13% of 30 80%: 40% of 30 |
| NW | 41 | 2.3 kt | 3.4 kt | 117° | ±2.6 kt | 50%: 39% of 41 80%: 73% of 41 |
Direction-calibration safeguards
Nearby-station lead analysis
Positive lead means the nearby station changes before Ravenspoint.
| Station | Best lead | Correlation | Samples | Repeatable |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAF Valley | 0 min | 0.94 | 1382 | Yes |
| Met Office Isle of Anglesey | 30 min | 0.94 | 684 | Yes |
| Met Office Gwynedd | 0 min | 0.91 | 687 | Yes |
| Met Office Conwy | 0 min | 0.82 | 686 | Yes |
Recent model candidates
Met Office warning feed
Current Source: NSWWS API · Active warnings: 0 · Last checked: 2 minutes ago.
Three-hour trend indicator accuracy
This is a separate rolling seven-day check of the “increasing, steady or falling” message shown with live wind. It is not the six-hour forecasting model above.
| Forecasts assessed | 168 |
|---|---|
| Fully correct | 90 (54%) |
| Trend direction correct | 54% |
| Average wind-strength error | 3.2 kt |
| 18-knot threshold correct | 99% |