Trearddur Bay sailing weather

Live wind at Ravenspoint

Roof-level observations from the Davis Vantage Pro weather station.

N SW 225°
Wind now 9 knots
Gust · last hour 13.9 knots 11:32 · SW
Today's max gust 26.9 knots 04:08 · W
1-hour average 9.6 knots From WSW

3-hour wind trend: Steady (-0.5 kt/h)

24-hour comparison

Wind now / 24 hours ago9 / 7 knots
Gust now / 24 hours ago13.9 / 8.7 knots
Today's average9 knots from 225°

Full sailing conditions and forecast →

Met Office weather warnings

Trearddur Bay

No active weather warnings for Trearddur Bay.

Weather warnings supplied by the Met Office.

Ravenspoint experimental nowcast

Local four-hour wind forecast

Generated from the Davis station's recent wind, gust, direction, pressure, temperature and humidity patterns, with Met Office guidance used as a secondary input.

Confidence
Moderate

Forecast current: updated 6 minutes ago.

Why this confidence: Recent checks favour Met Office guidance and recent observed wind over the experimental local model.

Current weather pattern: Stable. Forecast weighting is checked against outcomes from similar conditions when enough examples exist.

Model still learning: This is an experimental local forecast. Do not use it as the sole basis for sailing decisions; check current conditions and the official forecast.

Sailing outlook: Likely sailing window from 12:25 to 12:25. Based on the forecast range, gust risk and the 18-knot threshold.
12:25 Likely suitable 10.2 kt · gust 14.1 kt · WSW Upper wind range remains below 18 kt and gusts remain below 25 kt.
13:25 Marginal 10.1 kt · gust 14.1 kt · W Marginal because upper wind range reaches 18.3 kt.
14:25 Marginal 10.8 kt · gust 15.0 kt · WSW Marginal because upper wind range reaches 18.6 kt.
15:25 Marginal 10.4 kt · gust 14.2 kt · WSW Marginal because upper wind range reaches 19.0 kt.
Likely suitable +1 hour 12:25
WSW
10.2 kt wind14.1 kt gust
Most likely: 8.1–8.7 kt central 50% Possible: 7.4–9.2 kt safety range, 80% Moderate agreement · 8 direction-matched results · provisional Gust risk: ≥20 kt 1% · ≥25 kt 0% · ≥30 kt 0% Since previous run: Stronger by 0.8 kt Blend: Met Office 48%, recent wind 52%
Marginal +2 hours 13:25
W
10.1 kt wind14.1 kt gust
Most likely: 5.9–14.4 kt central 50% Possible: 1.9–18.3 kt safety range, 80% Moderate agreement · 38 horizon error results Gust risk: ≥20 kt 4% · ≥25 kt 0% · ≥30 kt 0% Since previous run: Little change from the previous run Blend: Met Office 53%, recent wind 47%
Marginal +3 hours 14:25
WSW
10.8 kt wind15.0 kt gust
Most likely: 5.9–15.8 kt central 50% Possible: 3.0–18.6 kt safety range, 80% Moderate agreement · 30 horizon error results Gust risk: ≥20 kt 11% · ≥25 kt 1% · ≥30 kt 0% Since previous run: Little change from the previous run Blend: Met Office 60%, recent wind 40%
Marginal +4 hours 15:25
WSW
10.4 kt wind14.2 kt gust
Most likely: 4.3–16.5 kt central 50% Possible: 1.8–19.0 kt safety range, 80% Moderate agreement · 25 horizon error results · provisional Gust risk: ≥20 kt 11% · ≥25 kt 1% · ≥30 kt 0% Since previous run: Little change from the previous run Blend: Met Office 60%, recent wind 40%

Ravenspoint compared with Met Office

Wind speed in knots. The recent error row uses scored live outcomes for each forecast horizon.

+1h Ravenspoint 10.2 Met Office 11.4 Recent error: 4.1 kt local / 2.5 kt Met Office
+2h Ravenspoint 10.1 Met Office 11.1 Recent error: 5.1 kt local / 2.3 kt Met Office
+3h Ravenspoint 10.8 Met Office 12.1 Recent error: 5.4 kt local / 2.4 kt Met Office
+4h Ravenspoint 10.4 Met Office 11.3 Recent error: 6.4 kt local / 2.5 kt Met Office

Training archive: 3,057 days · Forecast outcomes scored: 139 · Updated 11:32

Met Office probabilistic guidance

Wind forecast confidence

The central forecast and likely 10th–90th percentile range for Trearddur Bay.

Confidence
Moderate

Guidance current: updated 6 minutes ago. The last valid forecast remains visible if the Met Office feed is temporarily unavailable.

12:00
10.0 kt wind
Likely 7.0–14.0 kt
18.7 kt gust
Likely 17.1–20.8 kt
Wind ≥18 kt 0%Gust ≥25 kt 0%
13:00
10.0 kt wind
Likely 6.1–13.0 kt
18.2 kt gust
Likely 15.7–20.0 kt
Wind ≥18 kt 0%Gust ≥25 kt 0%
14:00
10.0 kt wind
Likely 6.1–13.0 kt
18.1 kt gust
Likely 15.7–19.4 kt
Wind ≥18 kt 0%Gust ≥25 kt 0%
15:00
10.0 kt wind
Likely 6.1–13.0 kt
17.4 kt gust
Likely 15.8–19.8 kt
Wind ≥18 kt 0%Gust ≥25 kt 0%
16:00
9.0 kt wind
Likely 5.8–12.0 kt
17.3 kt gust
Likely 14.7–19.3 kt
Wind ≥18 kt 0%Gust ≥25 kt 0%
17:00
8.0 kt wind
Likely 5.1–11.7 kt
16.6 kt gust
Likely 14.5–19.0 kt
Wind ≥18 kt 0%Gust ≥25 kt 0%

Forecasts checked against Ravenspoint observations: 66. Accuracy is tracked separately by forecast horizon.

Probabilistic guidance is not a guarantee. Check live conditions before sailing.

Met Office Global Spot forecast

Trearddur Bay wind forecast

Hourly wind and gust forecast for the next 48 hours. Speeds are shown in knots.

Model run
18 Aug, 10:00 UTC
DateTimeDirectionWindGustWeatherRain
Tue 18 Aug 11:00 WNW 14 kt 18 kt Cloudy 5%
Tue 18 Aug 12:00 W 11 kt 15 kt Cloudy 5%
Tue 18 Aug 13:00 W 11 kt 15 kt Cloudy 5%
Tue 18 Aug 14:00 W 12 kt 16 kt Cloudy 6%
Tue 18 Aug 15:00 WSW 11 kt 15 kt Cloudy 6%
Tue 18 Aug 16:00 WSW 11 kt 14 kt Overcast 12%
Tue 18 Aug 17:00 W 10 kt 14 kt Light rain 49%
Tue 18 Aug 18:00 WSW 9 kt 12 kt Overcast 17%
Tue 18 Aug 19:00 WSW 9 kt 12 kt Cloudy 14%
Tue 18 Aug 20:00 WSW 8 kt 11 kt Cloudy 14%
Tue 18 Aug 21:00 WSW 9 kt 13 kt Light rain 50%
Tue 18 Aug 22:00 WSW 10 kt 14 kt Light rain 56%
Tue 18 Aug 23:00 SW 10 kt 14 kt Light rain 57%
Wed 19 Aug 00:00 WSW 12 kt 16 kt Light rain 60%
Wed 19 Aug 01:00 WSW 13 kt 18 kt Light rain 55%
Wed 19 Aug 02:00 WSW 14 kt 19 kt Light rain 49%
Wed 19 Aug 03:00 WSW 13 kt 19 kt Cloudy 10%
Wed 19 Aug 04:00 WSW 13 kt 18 kt Cloudy 8%
Wed 19 Aug 05:00 WSW 13 kt 18 kt Cloudy 6%
Wed 19 Aug 06:00 WSW 12 kt 17 kt Overcast 10%
Wed 19 Aug 07:00 W 12 kt 16 kt Cloudy 6%
Wed 19 Aug 08:00 W 12 kt 17 kt Overcast 9%
Wed 19 Aug 09:00 W 13 kt 18 kt Partly cloudy 3%
Wed 19 Aug 10:00 W 13 kt 18 kt Partly cloudy 2%
Wed 19 Aug 11:00 WSW 13 kt 18 kt Partly cloudy 2%
Wed 19 Aug 12:00 WSW 13 kt 18 kt Partly cloudy 2%
Wed 19 Aug 13:00 SW 13 kt 19 kt Partly cloudy 4%
Wed 19 Aug 14:00 SW 14 kt 20 kt Partly cloudy 4%
Wed 19 Aug 15:00 SW 15 kt 21 kt Partly cloudy 2%
Wed 19 Aug 16:00 SSW 16 kt 23 kt Cloudy 8%
Wed 19 Aug 17:00 SW 17 kt 23 kt Cloudy 13%
Wed 19 Aug 18:00 SW 16 kt 22 kt Cloudy 15%
Wed 19 Aug 19:00 SW 16 kt 22 kt Cloudy 13%
Wed 19 Aug 20:00 WSW 14 kt 20 kt Cloudy 16%
Wed 19 Aug 21:00 WSW 12 kt 16 kt Cloudy 12%
Wed 19 Aug 22:00 W 10 kt 14 kt Cloudy 9%
Wed 19 Aug 23:00 W 10 kt 14 kt Partly cloudy 4%
Thu 20 Aug 00:00 W 11 kt 15 kt Partly cloudy 8%
Thu 20 Aug 01:00 W 11 kt 15 kt Light shower 34%
Thu 20 Aug 02:00 WNW 9 kt 13 kt Light shower 37%
Thu 20 Aug 03:00 WNW 8 kt 12 kt Cloudy 13%
Thu 20 Aug 04:00 NW 8 kt 12 kt Cloudy 10%
Thu 20 Aug 05:00 NW 7 kt 11 kt Light shower 29%
Thu 20 Aug 06:00 NW 8 kt 12 kt Light shower 35%
Thu 20 Aug 07:00 NW 7 kt 11 kt Light shower 35%
Thu 20 Aug 08:00 NW 8 kt 13 kt Light shower 35%
Thu 20 Aug 09:00 NNW 9 kt 14 kt Heavy shower 67%
Thu 20 Aug 10:00 N 10 kt 16 kt Heavy shower 62%
Gusts 18–24 ktGusts 25+ kt

Forecast data © Crown copyright Met Office. Full official Trearddur Bay forecast →